• Cale
    September 1, 2021
    Lotta eyes on OPEC today, but nat gas - and propane - continue to be worthy of attention here as we head into winter...

    1. BBG: Emerging Asia Faces Power Curbs, More Pollution on Gas Rally

    Short version: LNG prices in Asia are so high that some countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh have ceased buying spot cargoes...and are now buying and burning oil instead. And, you know, winter is coming.

    JKM is now close to being above $11/mmbtu thru 2023. Big Green Light for LNG arb there...quick math, simple numbers, ignoring small terminaling fees...

    • sourcing: $4/mmbtu
    • transport to facility and liquefaction: $1
    • ship transport to destination: $1.3
    • total cost delivered: $6.3

    So $11 minus $6 = moar molecules of freedom. And if ya consider that JKM breaks higher than $12 for several months in there....let's round up and call the current arb at the low a nice 100% return per cargo.

    Good for U.S. LNG exporters - and likely for nat gas producers in the Haynesville, too. Eyes out for consolidation there soon, IMO.

    2. G&R: North American Gas Markets Now in Deficit

    The main challenge faced by US natural gas has been the unrelenting growth of the Marcellus and Permian. If we are correct and both plays are entering the early stages of exhaustion, then a new gas bull market has likely started.

    3. On the carbon front...

    WSJ: Energy Traders See Big Money in Carbon-Emissions Markets

    The value of the carbon market could exceed the oil market’s value by 2030, possibly even by 2025 if swift action is taken and regulations are implemented.

    4. This Week's Sign That Predicting The Future Is Hard:

    BBG: Wall Street During the Pandemic: The Impossible Is Now Commonplace

    If someone would have told me in March of last year, when Covid was first rearing its ugly head, that 18 months later we would have case counts that are as high - if not higher - than they were on that day, but that the market would have doubled over that 18-month period, I would have laughed at them.

    Disclaimer: This post nor any of the material linked to herein in any way constitutes investment advice. Investing may cause capital loss. The publication of this note is in no way a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services.
  • Cale
    August 30, 2021
    Handful of recent slides from unowned companies of note to me this earnings season...

    From $EPD here:

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    From $APA here:

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    From $LBRT here:

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    Narrative violations starting to pop up more and more...

    Disclaimer: This post nor any of the material linked to herein in any way constitutes investment advice. Investing may cause capital loss. The publication of this note is in no way a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services.
  • Cale
    August 2, 2021
    New month, new open thread for public posts.

    Back late last night, meeting this morning, then leaving for a week-long conference up the road again.

    Will be back on here a bit more regularly starting next week.

    Thank you and more then.


    Disclaimer: This post nor any of the material linked to herein in any way constitutes investment advice. Investing may cause capital loss. The publication of this note is in no way a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services.
  • Cale
    June 28, 2021
    For the next month or so, my posts on the public boards will be light.

    That'll start today and will last through the end of July.

    Need to re-prioritize some things during a month with zero slack on the calendar. Lotta things happening here in and out of the office.

    Will continue to have eyes on everything - and will continue company-specific posts on the private boards.

    Also will publish a Q2 letter within the next few weeks, and will post a publc link to that here as well.

    So, I don't anticipate many public posts from yours truly this coming month. Post however you'd like, though, of course, on this thread or elsewhere.

    On the private boards, I will start a single thread for the month of July soon. Going to attempt to limit my own posts there to company-specific news and filings...a delayed summary at the end of each day, rather than pre-market, as usual...and then to answer any questions that pop up, too.

    Fire away with any questions and comments for me whenever. Just may take me a bit longer to respond here on the boards than usual as I juggle a couple of other things this month.

    Thank you for the patience. Really enjoy these boards, and hope you all do, too. Also hope to finally start knocking out some things in July that I think will make them even better...

    - Cale

    Disclaimer: This post nor any of the material linked to herein in any way constitutes investment advice. Investing may cause capital loss. The publication of this note is in no way a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services.
  • Cale
    June 21, 2021
    Placeholder post for this week - out of the office today, back Tuesday morning.

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