If sustained, 1Q could turn out to be the most undersupplied quarter since at least 2000.
Plus, about 1 million barrels a day of crude production may never come back due to the damage some oil wells incurred from the weather.
Even if renewables reach 50% of the grid, there would be no net CO2 savings, while end products' costs would likely increase by 10-100%.
In reality, the geopolitical fallout of a clean energy transition will be far more subtle, complex, and counterintuitive. Many of today’s predictions are likely to turn out wrong, or will take decades to unfold in unpredictable ways. If policymakers don’t get a clear-eyed understanding of how global power relations will change—not only in a future era of zero-carbon energy, but during the long and messy transition to get there—they won’t be able to manage the coming era of foreign-policy risks, and their efforts to combat climate change will be stymied.
The hopeful way to go into that is, ‘Oh, wow, we actually have technology that can do this. And that’s nuclear. And so I’d rather stay hopeful.